A certain White House personality can play havoc with your portfolio, as we’ve seen. On the NAFTA le, we seem headed for a thin agreement in principal, while leaving much uncertainty on other items still to be negotiated into next year. Tariffs on Canadian lumber, paper and pipes aren’t disappearing just yet either. The heated trade war with China is much less easy to call.
But even if these trade hotspots cool off, Trump may have another market shock in store. Newly appointed National Security Advisor John Bolton shares Trump’s animosity towards the Iran nuclear deal, and the White House has to declare that Iran is in compliance with that pact by May 12th. If they rule otherwise, sanctions could be reimposed and disrupt Iranian crude shipments, while markets could even worry about US military action in the region, which Bolton has publicly advocated.