Donald Trump would probably claim that modesty is his best quality, and these days, modesty or moderation in US economic growth seems to be the norm. That’s been underscored as a cast of Fed speakers warned about the need to raise rates “soon,” in the wake of the Fed’s own Beige Book report that characterized growth on the ground as only “modest to moderate.”
Quantitative reports are also in line with that qualitative assessment. Q4 growth came in a bit light, and below 2%. The early tracking readings for Q1 don’t look any better. So why conclude that the economy is in need of a bit less monetary juice?