Greenback: Which Way is the Wind Blowing?

The Week Ahead

June 11, 2018

We at CIBC Economics try to be one-handed economists—with not too many buts and howevers. BUT, when it comes to the near- term trajectory of the US dollar, it appears that what you need is an octopus economist. You see, currencies have a mind of their own, and trying to predict them is an intense exercise in frustration.

The consensus on the street is that the trade-weighted dollar will lose ground over the coming year. The logic here is that the Fed’s future trajectory is fully priced in, and with some potential tightening coming from Japan and the Eurozone, the greenback will look less attractive.

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