More Alternative Facts

The Week Ahead

April 3, 2017

Everyone is feeling good about the US economy these days, except for those collecting the data at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In contrast, some are still worried about the Canadian economy’s fate, except those assembling the numbers at Statistics Canada. For whatever reason, the data seem to be presenting “alternative facts” compared to the sentiment in both countries.

Stateside, the “present situation” measure from the Conference Board’s household survey stands at its highest level since 2001. Job creation has been rock solid, a clear sign of business optimism. Large players sampled by the ISM and regional Fed surveys, and smaller ones in the NFIB confidence survey, have rarely been more ebullient. The NY Fed’s Nowcast model, which includes the ISM and various regional Fed surveys, is predicting 2.9% Q1 growth as of today.

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