Age Is Not Just A Number

The Week Ahead

May 6, 2019

It’s May 2019, and the US expansion is now officially the longest on record. In the past we claimed that the current expansion is younger than it looks, if measured beginning from the point that GDP reached its pre- recession level. But today, even by that yardstick, this expansion isn’t exactly a spring chicken (Chart).

So, should investors enter late cycle mode? This cycle is old in US terms, but relative to the experience in other countries, the current US expansion is still in its prime (see “Hang in There Baby: Lessons in Recession Avoidance “- a great piece, if you haven’t read it).

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